The 2016 Race: Hillary Clinton Has a 76 Percent Chance to Win the Presidency

Introducing our forecasting model, which doesn’t put much stock in so-called fundamentals; it’s based almost entirely on polls.


The 2016 Race: Confused by Contradictory Polls? Take a Step Back

There’s lots of presidential polling going on right now, and outliers are inevitable. But collectively, the picture is clearer.


Poll Finds Voters in Both Parties Unhappy With Their Candidates

Voters expressed deep misgivings about their presumptive nominees in a New York Times/CBS News poll. The race between Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton is tied.


The 2016 Race: Hillary Clinton’s Lead Has Shrunk, but She Still Has an Edge

A politics chat includes a look at a close race and a very busy day of polls — and what to make of them.


Poll Finds Emails Weighing on Hillary Clinton, Now Tied With Donald Trump

The Democratic candidate’s shifting explanations for her use of a private mail server as secretary of state appear to raise trust issues among voters.


Race Relations Are at Lowest Point in Obama Presidency, Poll Finds

A New York Times/CBS News Poll indicates that relations between African-Americans and the police are so brittle that the attack that killed five officers in Dallas left many respondents unsurprised.


How the Poll Was Conducted

The latest New York Times/CBS News Poll is based on telephone interviews with 1,600 adults throughout the United States.


A More Personal Hillary Clinton Tries to Erase a Trust Deficit

Mrs. Clinton has slowly owned up to the trustworthiness problem. But it will take more than acknowledgment to fix the issue.


The 2016 Race: How Trump’s Campaign Could Redraw Voter Allegiances

A message radically different from what Republicans have advanced has considerable appeal to white working-class Democrats.


Political Calculus: Right-Wing Populism Is Prevailing in Left-Wing Strongholds Around the World

An electorate split between the people who have benefited from globalization and those who haven’t.


Britain Votes to Leave the European Union

The stunning outcome reflected populist sentiment and is sure to have far-reaching effects on Britain’s place in the world and the future of the E.U.


Suspense Is High as Britain Awaits Outcome of E.U. Referendum

The vote on Britain’s continued membership in the European Union sent currency traders scrambling and the pound first up and then down.


Stay or Go: ‘Brexit’ and the Risks of Democracy

Referendums can distill complex issues into a simplistic choice. But sometimes the people just need to be heard.


Stay or Go: Telling Sign? Many Supporters of ‘Brexit’ Expect Defeat

Research suggests that people’s predictions of a voting outcome are often more accurate than their stated intentions.